SNP defeat in Glasgow North East
But no enthusiasm for New Labour policies
Labour’s victory in the Glasgow North East by election last week by more than 8,000 votes over the SNP seems, on the face of it, to be a surprise. The by election was, after all, triggered by the forced resignation of the longstanding right wing Labour MP and Commons speaker, Michael Martin – a consequence of his role in the MPs expenses scandal. Gordon Brown’s New Labour government at Westminster are also presiding over the deepest recession in generations, while their electoral support is draining away.
Tommy Sheridan stood for Solidarity
As recently as July 2008, the SNP pulled off a big victory in winning the neighbouring constituency at the Glasgow East by election. A seat whose levels of social deprivation, poverty and unemployment are very similar to Glasgow North East. The 20% share of the vote that the SNP won last week contrasts sharply with the 43% they polled in Glasgow East last year.
There were three main factors that decided the outcome of this election. First was the mass abstentionism that produced a dire 33% turnout – the lowest by election turnout ever in Scotland. Forget apathy, this was anger, hatred and disgust towards the political establishment of all parties who are held in contempt by the majority of the working class. Never before has there been such a gap between the political elite and the overwhelming majority of the people. The rage at the plain greed and arrogance displayed by MPs while working class communities are being torn apart by the economic recession was there for all to see.
The second factor is the increasing exposure of the SNP as a party of the capitalist market and therefore no fundamentally different from the rest of the main parties. The SNP government in Edinburgh are preparing to pass on huge cuts in public spending which will see a slashing of services and jobs in the public sector. As part of these planned cuts the SNP dropped a proposed rail link between Glasgow and the airport that Labour used to portray the SNP as being “anti-Glasgow” and an “east coast” party. This, in a distorted way, was an ironic attempt by Labour to paint the SNP as being hostile to the interests of the working class. A theme that Labour will continue to try and play on in the run up to the Westminster elections next year.
The third factor is the fear of the return of a Tory government at the general election. There has been a significant increase in Labour’s electoral support in Scotland over the last few months as the prospect of a Cameron-led Tory government looms ever closer. In April 2009, Labour had a 4% lead over the SNP for the next Westminster election. By the start of November that has risen to 14% with Labour on 39% and the SNP on 25%. Neither this revival, nor Labour’s 60% share of the vote in last week’s by election, is a positive endorsement of Brown’s, Darling’s and Mandelson’s anti-working class agenda. Rather it is a reflection of a desire, especially powerful among the 40 plus generation whose memory of Thatcherism is still strong, to stop the coming to power of a Tory government – even if it means voting Labour while “holding their noses.”
In the absence of the emergence of a sizeable left electoral force to offer a poll of attraction for broad layers of the working class it is likely that Labour support will hold up in Scotland, and the SNP will fail to make a sizeable breakthrough next year. The Tories, who only just saved their deposit, in Glasgow North East will be unlikely to win more than one or two seats in Scotland. However, if the Tories do come to power next year at a UK level Scottish politics will be thrown into upheaval. The urgent need to create and build a new organised voice for the working class is growing by the day.
