Nicola Sturgeon’s speech shows SNP incapable of leading a struggle for indyref2

Socialist Party Scotland statement 

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s speech today will have dismayed large numbers of independence supporters in Scotland. Billed as setting out the way forward after Boris Johnson scandalously turned down the request from the Scottish parliament for the transfer of powers to hold indyref2, Sturgeon said that, in her view, a second referendum would have to wait until the Tories allow it.

There will now be a growing appetite for debate and discussion on how to confront and overcome the obstacles in the way of indyref2. And why it is that the SNP leadership are so incapable of facing up to that task of leading the struggle for self-determination. The space to the left of the SNP could well grow as workers and young people previously attracted to the SNP now see them as incapable of seriously fighting for independence as well as austerity.  

Sturgeon’s words will fall on stony ground among many, and contrasts sharply with the mood on the huge 80,000-strong indy march held in early January in Glasgow. As Socialist Party Scotland pointed out in our report of the march: “The protest reflected mounting anger at the prospect of another Tory government and a growing willingness to struggle for independence to change society and end austerity.”

In contrast to that combative mood, Sturgeon said today: “To achieve independence, a referendum, whenever it happens – whether it is this year as I want, or after the next Scottish election – must be legal and legitimate.”

She went on: “And the best way to achieve that, even though it may not be ideal, is to reach agreement with UK Government on a transfer of power to the Scottish Parliament, just as we did for 2014.”

Most working class people looking to independence instinctively understand that the Tory government, defending the rule of the billionaire class, will fight tooth and nail to avoid acceding to a referendum.

The SNP leader did not point to a single proposal for mobilising working-class people to confront the Tories. There was no suggestion for a mass demonstration, no appeal to the working class to now prepare for a titanic movement to fight for democratic rights, no demand for a council of war, including the trade unions, to build such a campaign.

Sturgeon’s mortal fear of mobilising the working class in a direct confrontation with the Tory government will only undermine support for the pro-capitalist SNP leadership.

Ruling class implacably opposed

Boris Johnson’s refusal to allow a referendum reflects the overall opposition of British capitalism, who will do all they can to prevent any possibility of the break-up of the UK. Scottish independence would be a catastrophe for capitalist interests – even more profound than Brexit. While Scotland makes up around a tenth or so of the overall UK economy, the blow to the prestige of British capitalism would be immense. 

It would lead to a major weakening in its international standing and have profound consequences for the whole of the UK. Not least in Northern Ireland, where an increase in sectarian conflict, including demands by nationalists for an “Irish Unity” border poll and counter-demands by unionists to oppose it, would be hugely destabilising.

Scottish independence would also inflame the national question in Wales. Another factor could be a rise in English nationalism and increased national tensions generally. This nightmare scenario for the capitalist class must be avoided at all costs.

Both Sturgeon and the SNP leadership are massively underestimating the determination of the ruling class to block Scottish independence. Mass working-class struggle and a revolutionary threat to to the billionaire class can force concessions. Appeals by the SNP to the Tories to listen to reason and accept the “democratic will of the people” will fail. 

Nicola Sturgeon’s insistence, therefore, that the only route to independence is a legally agreed referendum is an exercise in delusion. This is not 2014. Then, David Cameron and Tories were confident they would comfortably win a referendum and in the process end for decades demands for separation.

They were rocked by an insurgent mood among the working class in favour of independence. Not for nothing did one commentator, Gideon Rachman, writing in the FT the day after the indyref describe it as a “near-death experience” for the UK. 

There is no chance of British capitalism revisiting that strategy. Not with latest opinion poll indicating support for independence at 51%.

The only way to win democratic rights and self-determination is to build a campaign, rooted in the working class and the trade unions, that confronts the opposition and the capitalist interests that lie behind them. To be able to mobilise such a movement requires socialist and anti-austerity policies at its core.

For that reason a huge movement for indyref2 must be built by the trade unions and the working class that is independent of the pro-capitalist SNP leadership. Socialist Party Scotland advocates mobilising the power of the workers’ movements, mass demonstrations, generalised strike action, occupations etc to demand the right to choose. But this can only be done while offering a vision of an independent Scotland that ends all cuts, poverty and wealth inequality. In other words a socialist society.

Nicola Sturgeon’s timidity in the face Johnson’s intransigence and the class interests he defends should not be a surprise. It’s the same capitulation we have seen over austerity, with the Scottish government and SNP-led councils passing on cuts with barely a murmur of opposition.

Nor can the SNP’s “vision” of an independent Scotland convince the big majority of the working class to back independence. Their “Growth Commission” report underlined that after independence austerity would continue unaltered in a capitalist Scotland. In contrast, an independent socialist Scotland, based on public ownership of the economy and a massive programme of investment for housing, health and public services, would win mass support.

defy the Tories

Sturgeon, in her speech, poured cold water on the idea that the Scottish government would hold an “advisory referendum” as it was “legally untested”. “I am not ruling that out. But I also have to be frank. The outcome would be uncertain. There would be no guarantees. It could move us forward – but equally it could set us back.”

It would be perfectly legitimate, as part of a struggle for democratic rights, to convene such a referendum if the Tories refused to concede. The question of whether it was “legal” or “untested” from a capitalist point of view is secondary. The bosses and right-wing governments consistently use their influence over the legal system, the courts, parliament etc to impose anti-working class laws.

Look at the way the courts intervened to stop the Communication Workers’ Union strike ballot before Christmas. What was Thatcher’s poll tax if not an example of an anti-working-class law? Defeated, alongside the ‘Iron Lady’, by mass civil disobedience and an army of non-payment that precisely “broke the law”.

Would today’s Nicola Sturgeon have reluctantly accepted the poll tax legislation because it was “legal”? The refusal of the Tories to allow indyref2 shows that, for the capitalist class, democratic rights are to be dispensed with if it threatens their interests.

A mass movement for indyref2, linked to trade union action against a new wave of austerity and and attacks on workers’ rights, can defeat Johnson and the Tories.

It is also vital that a successful movement for the right to indyref2 seeks to link up with workers in other parts of the UK also struggling against this government of the rich. This could help lay the basis for a voluntary and democratic socialist confederation of Scotland with England, Wales and Ireland as a step to a socialist Europe.

Catalonia

Sturgeon has commented that Catalonia showed that a defiance strategy and a “wildcat” referendum “does not lead to independence.”

Yet the events in Catalonia in 2017 showed two things: firstly that the mass movement had precisely the potential to win self-determination and, secondly, that the weakness and timidity of the pro-capitalist nationalist leadership in Catalonia was a key reason as to why the movement did not succeed thus far.

Most crucially was the need for a significant working class force in Catalonia that stood for independence but rejected collaboration with the right wing nationalist parties.  A revolutionary socialist policy – advocating the overthrow of capitalism and a democratic independent socialist Catalonia – could have emerged as a mass force in 2017.      

In Catalonia in 2017, the right-wing Catalan nationalist government, driven by an insurgent movement from below, sanctioned an “illegal” referendum which they had no real intention of going through with. But the scale of the mobilisations on the streets meant that it went ahead. The Spanish state constitution outlaws the right to independence under article 155. With a history of fascism and military suppression, the police and military tried to crush the movement by force.

The brutal repression by the Spanish state against people queuing to vote on October 1st 2017 was seen by millions across the world. But it also unleashed an explosion of class struggle, including general strike action by workers and young people. The declaration of independence at the end of October 2017 was ill-prepared and short-lived. The scandalous arrest and imprisonment of politicians and leaders of the movement followed. 

The nationalist leadership of the pro-capitalist PdeCAT party were incapable of carrying through the struggle to its conclusion. In other words, for a revolutionary struggle against the reactionary capitalist Spanish state and for an independent socialist Catalonia that united the working class, both Catalan and Spanish, as well as other national minorities, to forge a socialist confederation of the region. By unleashing the power of the working class it would be more than possible to defeat the Tories – not just over their refusal to allow indyref2 but over cuts, austerity and anti-trade union laws as well. 

Trade unions central role

The SNP leadership, because they defend capitalism, are organically opposed to the working class confronting the Tory government. Socialist Party Scotland, as we did in the 2014 referendum, is seeking to assist in forging a trade union, socialist, anti-cuts and pro-working class campaign for an independent socialist Scotland.

The trade unions, with a mass membership in Scotland of around 600,000 can, and should, play a leading role in the struggle for democratic rights in Scotland. Linked to a serious strategy of coordinated industrial action against all cuts. The building of a new workers’ party to fight for socialism is crucial step that the trade unions should prepare for..

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech today underlines the reality that a successful struggle for a second independence referendum will need to be led by the working class, armed with socialist policies to end poverty and inequality for good. The SNP leadership have shown themselves to be unprepared and unwilling to take that necessary road.

Suggested resolutions for trade union organisations on indyref2 campaign

This organisation fully supports the right of the Scottish people to self-determination. Boris Johnson’s insistence that his government will not under any circumstances allow for a legal second independence referendum is unacceptable.

We defend the democratic right to hold a second referendum on the basis that there is majority support at Holyrood and in society for such a referendum to take place.

We resolve to campaign for and encourage the building of a mass, trade union-led, working class campaign for democratic rights in Scotland, including the right to indyref2. This is without preempting a discussion among our members on what our position would be in such a referendum. ie for or against independence. 

To this end we will engage with trade unions and others in Scotland who are seeking to build such a campaign.

While fighting for democratic rights and self-determination, we will continue to oppose all cuts and attacks on our members and the wider working class by cuts-making politicians, whether Tory, SNP or Labour etc.

We stand for the election of governments at Holyrood and Westminster committed to socialist policies to end austerity once and for all.