Nicola Sturgeon announces and then delays indyref2

By Philip Stott 

Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has, for the second time in two years, fired the starting gun on a second independence referendum. Addressing the Scottish parliament on Wednesday, she said: “I can confirm that the Scottish government will act to ensure that the option of giving people a choice on independence later in this term of parliament is progressed.”

However, this does not mean a referendum is imminent. In her speech Sturgeon said the Scottish government would delay asking Westminster for a Section 30 order – the necessary legally-binding go ahead for a referendum. May’s Tory government, mired in mortal combat over Brexit, have already said that no such order will be granted.

The SNP leadership have made clear that they will not request a Section 30 article until the Tories are out of power. And that they will not proceed without that consent – firmly rejecting any possibility of a Catalonia-style “illegal” referendum.

Sturgeon also kicked the can further down the road by emphasising that they would not proceed if Brexit was avoided. To “rush into an immediate decision before a Brexit path has been determined would not allow for an informed choice to be made”, she commented.

To add further elements of delay, she also offered the carrot to opposition parties of a route away from indyref2 and towards more devolved powers. “To seek to open up space for us to come together and find areas of agreement as mature politicians should.” In addition an Ireland-style “Citizens Assembly” would be established to “consider Scotland’s future” and “what further work should be carried out to give people the detail they need to make informed choices about the future of the country.”

In summary, three factors need to be in place in the SNP leadership’s schema before an actual referendum takes place. 1. Brexit to happen. 2. The Tories to be removed at Westminster and the coming to power of a Corbyn government – who could be more susceptible to pressure to grant a Section 30 order. 3. Delay indyref2 long enough until opinion polls change more clearly in favour of independence. At the moment support is still around the same level as it was in 2014, around 45%

competing pressures

Informing this “announce and delay” approach are two competing pressures. Firstly, the drive from the SNP membership and the pro-independence movement generally for a rapid second referendum. 2018 saw very large marches across Scotland – the largest up to 100,000 – demanding that Sturgeon act. There are likely to be similar large protests in 2019. The significance of the announcement three days before the SNP conference, which would also have been dominated by the issue, should also be factored in.

As is the pressure from the slavishly pro-EU Scottish Greens, who act as a prop for the minority SNP government but have been calling for a more rapid indyref2 timetable in response to the Brexit crisis. The SNP leadership are attempting to shore up their base ahead of the both the EU elections in May and the 2021 Scottish parliament elections, as well as a likely general election at any time. The SNP lost 21 MPs at the 2017 general election and are increasingly vulnerable as their base among the working class is weakened by their austerity policies. Following that election the Scottish government were forced to ditch their original timetable for a new referendum. 

Secondly, stagnating support for independence means that time is required in the hope there will be a surge, for example if Brexit is implemented. Delay is required for this, hence the use of the Abraham Lincoln quote by Sturgeon: “With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed”

workers’ struggles

In the meantime, workers and trade unionists are increasingly taking to the road of struggle. The history-making equal pay strikes in Glasgow that led to a cash transfer of over £500 million to thousands of low paid mainly women workers was a seminal victory. One that Socialist Party Scotland members played a key role in. Scottish teachers have just won a pay-cap smashing 13.5% pay increase.

Strike action by the bin workers in Angus has forced management to abandon draconian changes to shift patterns. Oil workers’ strikes in the North Sea also reflect a new combative mood. Strike ballots are pending among council workers in Dundee and West Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh bus drivers. The civil servants national ballot on pay will also hopefully lead to a big majority for action.

Many of these disputes are taking place against SNP-led councils and the Scottish government. The shrinking base of support for the SNP among workers is adding to their difficulties and the prospects of winning an indyref2.

A fighting socialist alternative to the SNP and their role in implementing austerity can and must be built. Scottish Labour’s failure to oppose cuts, especially in the councils they control, is blocking the possibility of building a political alternative. Corbyn’s concessions to the Blairites, including over Brexit, is a huge mistake. Labour’s opposition to a second independence referendum is a major barrier for working class people in Scotland who do support independence. If Richard Leonard et al do not change tack then a new mass working class party must be built, based on the trade unions and all those who want to fight back against cuts and capitalism.

Socialist Party Scotland demands that SNP and Labour councillors and MSPs refuse to carry out Tory austerity and set no-cuts budgets. This would be the springboard for a mass campaign among the working class to win back the billions stolen from public services

democratic rights

We also fight to defend the democratic rights of the people of Scotland to self-determination, including a second referendum. If such a democratic demand was refused by Westminster when mass supported existed for a referendum, then it would be necessary to build a campaign of civil disobedience, strikes and mass protests. Demands on the Scottish government to “do a Catalonia” and organise their own referendum can and will grow.

The SNP leadership, wedded to big-business interests, are incapable of leading a struggle for real independence. Independence from poverty, cuts, low pay and climate catastrophe requires socialist change in Scotland and internationally.

We fight for an independent socialist Scotland. For an end to capitalism and public ownership and democratic working class control of the major sectors of the Scottish economy. We would advocate that there should be a voluntary and democratic socialist confederation with England, Wales and Ireland as a step to a socialist Europe.

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