Ireland South: General election results – a precarious ‘stability’ holds, for now
Ciarán McKenna, Militant Left (CWI in Ireland)
Following the Dáil [parliament of the Irish republic] elections of 29 November, government formation talks continue. While there is no doubt that the two main traditional ruling parties of Irish capitalism, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will form and lead the next government, the only question is who will make up the numbers? Will Labour talk the bait again? Or will the Social Democrats? More likely a cohort of Independent TDs [members of the Irish parliament] will be persuaded to support the next government, in return for preferential treatment for their constituencies.
Regardless of the eventual composition of the government, the recent Dáil elections expose further polarisation and degeneration within the parliamentary system. Despite the outward ‘success’ of the Irish capitalist economy, there remain deep social crises which cannot be resolved within the parameters of Irish capitalism.
Support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dropped to its lowest point ever. The same holds for overall turnout which dipped below 60% for the first time. Just 1 in 4 eligible voters now cast a first preference vote for either of the traditional parties of Irish capitalism. Sinn Féin’s modest advances fell short of what was needed for them to lead a government. In what follows we outline an analysis of what this election can tell us about the state of parliamentary democracy in the South and what the implications are for the working class and the class struggle.
Socialist Left: Disappointing but not disastrous
The election results were disappointing for the left but not disastrous. People Before Profit-Solidarity (PBP-Sol) lost three seats and gained one with a nett loss of two seats. Left independents like Joan Collins in Dublin South Central and Thomas Pringle in Donegal also lost their seats.
At a time of low levels of working class struggle the socialist left still managed to retain a presence in the Dail. PBP-Sol won 3 seats, all of them in Dublin. This has the potential to be politically important; depending on how these TDs use their positions to advocate a clear socialist solution, while basing themselves on the working class including the trade unions.
Many other PBP-Sol candidates secured decent votes which indicate a level of support for left parties. However, a warning sign was evident. The first preference votes for the sitting PBP-Sol TDs – and for Ruth Coppinger who was seeking a return to the Dail – were significantly lower than in 2020. Both in terms of numbers of votes and their percentage share.
The PBP-Sol left grouping in the Dáil is now balanced between three separate organisations each with one TD. How coherent that grouping will be remains to be seen. Certainly, it will face challenges in terms of securing speaking time and putting bills forward. Despite this, it is politically significant that there will be a left presence in the next Dáil.
We believe now that discussions must begin on building a mass party of the working class that can draw in that layer of socialists, trade unionists, community activists and working-class people who are clearly supportive of socialist politics. Another Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael led coalition will see a worsening of the housing crisis, for instance. There is huge, and growing anger, among wide sections of the working class, that despite evidence of wealth and prosperity, basic needs like affordable housing still cannot be met. This anger provides a clear basis for such a party, based on a socialist programme, to grow and consolidate.
From a ‘two-party’ to a ‘three bloc’ system?
2011’s general election, the first following the financial collapse of 2008, fundamentally ruptured the Dáil system. It ended the electoral dominance of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and opened up space for other political forces to enter, primarily Sinn Fein.
November’s election confirmed the ongoing consolidation of distinct political blocs. Replacing the defunct two party ‘Civil War’ politics that dominated from 1922 to 2011. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now locked into an ever-tightening alliance. Since both of them refuse to coalesce with Sinn Féin, this alliance remains the basis for government for the foreseeable future.
Moreover, strong transfer patterns between both parties confirm that a section of the Irish electorate recognises this political fact. However, this is likely a temporary phenomenon. Based, as it is, on a ‘booming’ economy derived from record tax receipts and foreign direct investment from primarily US multinationals, which has maintained the living standards of a layer of the middle class and some workers. A new and inevitable economic crisis for the southern Irish economy will accelerate even further the erosion in support for the Fianna Fáíl/Fine Gael bloc.
Sinn Féin constitutes a second bloc. Open to coalition with all parties, but unable to coalesce with its preferred partner, Fianna Fáil. It remains distinctly lukewarm about a left government, and it is clearly not serious about doing the difficult and consistent political work necessary to build a left political alternative.
Perhaps this election will be a catalyst for Sinn Féin to seriously begin that hard political work of building an alternative potential government? Whether that is a ‘progressive’ or even a ‘left’ government. Given their record, both north and south, and their preference always to work with right wing parties like the DUP, this is very unlikely.
Lost in much of the wishful thinking about a Sinn Féin led ‘left’ government is the fact that it is above all else a nationalist party, with Irish national unity as its paramount political objective. The rise of an ultra-nationalist far right, who make extensive use of the symbols of Irish nationalism, above all the tricolour, poses a problem for Sinn Féin. With all pathways to government in the South blocked by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Sinn Féín’s dominant nationalist faction may be tempted to seek common ground with that section of the electorate turning towards an ultra-nationalist far right. Taking this path, rather than building a left alternative government, poses a massive threat to the interests of the working class.
The third political bloc to emerge from this election is based upon the ‘left’ wing of the Irish political establishment: the Green Party, Labour and the Social Democrats. The Greens lost 11 of their 12 seats. While both the Labour Party and the Social Democrats gained 5 seats apiece. Between them these 3 parties combined managed to return a similar number of TDs in 2024 compared to 2020. While they at this point have no formal structure, they have the potential in the next Dáil to bloc together, if one or other refuses to go into government. None of the parties are needed to form a potential government. Like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, there are few, if any, fundamental political differences between them.
However, their function is as the ‘left’ face for capitalism, exemplified by the Labour Party’s rotten role as austerity enforcers during the 2011-16 coalition. They may yet be needed in the coming years if the economy runs into trouble.
Some of the Social Democrat TDs come in with big ambitions that are impossible to fulfil as a small opposition party and it is possible they will fragment as this realisation dawns. Their political confusion is personified by their new TD Eoin Hayes who has hardly been a day in their parliamentary party before being booted out because of his links with the Israeli tech company, Palantir.
Far Right: No Dáil seats but an increased vote
Far right electoral forces did not win any seats. Nonetheless, several far right candidates secured respectable votes. Independent Ireland, a right populist organisation, won four seats. Aontú won two and independents like Mattie McGrath and Verona Murphy, both of whom willingly echo far right rhetoric, were returned with substantial votes.
A section of the electorate has clearly abandoned the traditional right wing parties for the far right. While not yet on the scale of Europe or the US, this is nonetheless a sign of increasing polarisation. The true political significance of this trend may only emerge when the next economic downturn hits. Trump’s threats over corporation tax indicate economic shocks might be closer than thought.
The attacks on the international protection centre in Athlone demonstrate that the far right and their fascist elements still pose a threat in our communities. After election 2024 these forces will have a few more friends in the next Dáil.
Elections under Capitalism: An exercise in political deflection and distortion
Absent from the campaign were key class issues that affect the day-to-day life of the working class majority. The narrative was enforced that the country is ‘doing well’. This, however, conflicts with the experiences of the majority of people. Statistics were cherry-picked to bolster narratives from the government parties about prosperity and wealth.
There was little or no discussion during the campaign of wages, in a society where 20% of workers are officially low paid. Housing and the cost of living were the key issues for voters, according to polls. Important solutions like a public house building corporation were put forward. But the housing debate was skewed by misinformation from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which was happily repeated by a complacent media.
While elections are meant to reflect ‘the will of the people’, the capitalist class goes to enormous effort to ensure this rarely, if ever, happens. That establishment insists that ‘politics’ is casting your vote once every four or five years, and then looking on as a passive spectator while professional politicians do the bidding of wealthy paymasters. The declining turnout reflects the realisation from many working class people that the political system does not serve them.
For socialists, however, politics means building workers’ power through struggle. Through building strong, combative, trade unions; through campaigning organisations on housing and healthcare; and, through socialist political organisations. Fine Gael have been in power now for almost 14 years. During that time a small but significant section of society has ‘done well’ but a much larger section has been cut adrift to permanent economic precarity.
The next Dáil will see that process continue and huge pressure build in society as working class people struggle for answers. The election answered none of the pressing questions facing the working class. The answers will now have to be fought for in our communities, workplaces, on the streets and in our trade unions.
